India’s economy is expected to grow 7.4% or higher in FY26, according to economists, as the National Statistical Office (NSO) prepares to release the first advance estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for the ongoing financial year on Wednesday.
The upcoming release will be significant as it marks the final GDP estimates based on the 2011-12 base year, ahead of the government’s planned transition to a new national accounts series with a 2022-23 base, scheduled to be rolled out next month. The rebasing exercise is aimed at better capturing structural shifts in the economy, including changes in consumption patterns, technology adoption and sectoral contributions.
Economists tracking high-frequency indicators such as GST collections, industrial output, credit growth and services activity expect India to remain among the fastest-growing major economies globally in FY26. A growth print of 7.4% or above would reflect resilience in domestic demand, continued public capital expenditure and steady performance in services, even as global economic conditions remain uncertain.
The first advance estimates are closely watched by policymakers and markets as they provide the earliest official projection of annual economic growth. These estimates also form the base for key macroeconomic assumptions in the Union Budget for 2026-27, including calculations related to fiscal deficit, government expenditure, public debt ratios and revenue projections.
In addition, the advance estimates influence policy decisions around tax buoyancy, statewise revenue devolution, and borrowing requirements for both the Centre and states. Any significant deviation from expectations could impact fiscal planning and budgetary allocations.
With India set to transition to a new GDP base year, Wednesday’s data release will effectively close a statistical cycle. Analysts expect future growth comparisons to be recalibrated under the new series, which could lead to revisions in historical data and sectoral weightings.
Overall, the FY26 advance estimates are expected to reaffirm India’s position as a key global growth engine while setting the macroeconomic foundation for the next Union Budget and policy cycle.
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