Venezuela will need to invest around $183 billion over the next 15 years till 2040 to raise its crude oil production to 3 million barrels per day (mbpd), according to energy research firm Rystad Energy The South American nation currently produces about 1.1 mbpd, far below its peak levels of the late 1990s.
Rystad Energy estimates that nearly $53 billion in upstream and infrastructure investment will be required just to maintain production at current levels through 2040. Without sustained capital inflows, Venezuela’s output risks further stagnation amid ageing fields, decaying infrastructure and years of underinvestment.
The report notes that with limited incremental spending, only around 300,000 bpd of additional supply can be restored over the next two to three years. To push production beyond 1.4 mbpd, Venezuela would require stable annual investments of $8–9 billion between 2026 and 2040, over and above the “hold-flat” capital needed to maintain existing output.
Under this scenario, Venezuelan crude production could recover to 2 mbpd by 2032 and reach 3 mbpd by 2040, Rystad Energy said. However, the firm cautioned that domestic funding alone would be insufficient. While national oil company PDVSA may finance part of the spending organically, at least $30–35 billion of international capital would need to be committed within the next two to three years to make the 3 mbpd target achievable.
Despite holding nearly 18% of the world’s proven oil reserves, Venezuela currently contributes just 0.8% of global crude supply, highlighting the scale of structural challenges facing its oil sector. China and the United States remain the largest buyers of Venezuelan crude.
Indian companies could also benefit if production ramps up. ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) holds stakes in the San Cristobal and Carabobo-1 oilfields, with cumulative investments exceeding $770 million, though returns remain impacted by sanctions.
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